http://images.remss.com/figures/climate/temperature_and_vapor_trop20_V4.png. At Winter Arctic temperatures there is not much upward longwave radiation to redirect. Photon frequencies don’t simply add, just like fluxes don’t simply add. 0.39 C warmer than the average for 1979-2019: A new paper on the PDO from a few years ago indicated it has multiple cycle times with some half cycles as low as 8 years. Anyway, let’s go about this in another way. Who is this imaginary Flynn who occupies your mind? However, in my experience, thermometers react to changes in that wonderful thing we call heat. December 2016: 0.391 We need really to go back further in time as far as the baseline is concerned. https://phys.org/news/2018-02-pacific-nation-bigger.html NASA hasn’t done that for a reason. The same reasoning applies to the mixture of gases. E, I was wondering when you would sneak it in. Aerosols are a huge component too plus dozens of other factors. NASA for some reason thinks that a composite of apples and oranges somehow forms a meaningful composite, it doesn’t, it simply creates a confusing and inconsistent data salad. Ozone is created by high energy UV interacting with O2. We returned to prior anomaly values just before the 2018-2020 El Nino took off. A second ice cube is placed on the other side of the thermometer, equally spaced as the first ice cube. It’s hard to imagine that the heat is originating from below. 2) 100% of the recent measurement fall within the range of temperatures reached between 1880 and 1900, 100% 2) Was it “Adjusted”? An unknown number of hydrothermal vents emit water at up to 400 C directly into the abyssal depths. Write down things we tell you so you can remember. Bindidon tested positive for “idiot” some months ago, due to his aversion to reality. Pratt used modern material, like saran wrap in lieu of glass, that interfered with the experiment. And you are, consistently, assuming that the raw data is untainted by non-climate effects, which we know not to be the case. I got ahold of Dr Spencer… he says he will fix it. Wood? A simple experiment anyone can run to debunk CO2 driven warming? If the ice remains at 273 Kelvin it will emit to the sphere a total of 0.227 Watts which will raise the sphere to a temperature of 44.7 Kelvin. Are the el Ninos not strong enough to counteract other causes of change? Exactly, Robert, and very well put. When they speak of ‘German humor’, they actually mean humor that actually is none. Why the gaps? They simply lack the critical data on significant variables. Being so close, a bit like the election an extra uptick or down tick here and there becomes vitally important. ps. The oceans are separated from the 1000 C mantle by a thin crust of not-terribly-effective-insulation (rocks). All temperature measurement devices, such as IR thermometers and thermocouples, can then be calibrated from a thermometer. ”. The ice is emitting photons. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v3.cgi?id=501943260000&dt=1&ds=5. A newly discovered plume near Svalbard would directly effect water flowing into the Arctic Ocean. At 500 ppm, cornfields would be warmer, and at 300 PPM they should be colder. Thanks, Bindidon, I knew my memory works ok. Your need to triumph in every interaction makes you quite stupid. CO2 increases, temperatures increase, New York sinks into the oceans? We’re certainly not going to get 1 meter sea level rise by 2100 that my City and my Province are projecting. This is quite obvious to anyone who understands the difference between coherent light as emitted by a CO2 laser, and non coherent light emitted by CO2 naturally. Let me see if I can clarify things here. 1 Sunny day is the equivalence of about 100 days of CO2. “Tipping points” are not runaway processes, just sudden, quasi-permanent changes, of which the geological record is abundant. One is that they can have a different effect on surface temp owing to their height. The reason the gas is cooled to -80C° and only the 9.5µ LWIR is applied is to isolate the impact of the LWIR on the gas to see if it does in fact warm the gas to its associated blackbody temperature. It first happened in 2007 and then again in 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and finally in 2020 which now replaces 2016 as the new record lowest value. Regressing the 2 new data sets, with T being the dependent variable and ΔW/M^2 being the independent variable, you can then identify the ΔT/ΔW/M^2. 15-19: 10.33 Ice, frozen H20, a Glacier, Sea Ice, Ice of temperature 0.00C° emits higher energy 10.5µ LWIR. As long as the anomalies stay the same relative to each other, then the trend will always be the same. We went from 2011 until this recent event without any strong events. And since we have always been discussing adding PHOTONS, not adding atoms, this is the more apt analogy. When it reaches the altitude at which the excess water condenses, droplets form a cloud. Funny, there just seems to be a lack of transparency, but I’m welcome to any “expert” explaining the logic behind those observations. Volcanic activity will have to be watched along with La Nina , and oceanic surface cooling in general. Expatica is the international communityâs online home away from home. What do you think happens when the ground receives 2p more photons from 2X CO2?”. bdgwx, what you don’t understand is NO temperature “guesses” from the past will ever be REAL science. The original theory presumed that infrared rays trapped by the glass heated the air. Let’s get to work on solving this problem. = climate change, Anything bad that happened This HadISST1 ice chart for the Arctic, showing absolute monthly extent values: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-tnk1k4XLKgD2-fNjpUQCxaxXidWMKfo/view. 4) there would be no acceleration of global warming in the past five years –indeed, there should be a decrease in the warming rate. I guess everyone makes mistakes, but I have to be concerned for experts that are not aware about the lags between Nino 3.4 and global temperatures in ENSO. 1) I can find many desert locations that show no warming at all. Larger changes are rarer, and sometimes associated with cycles. If the La Nina ends this Spring as 1 year events typically do then I would guess a return to around values of .2 C for the summer months and higher in the Arctic winter. The world has accepted the dire model forecasts and has moved on to urgently finding a solution that would lower the Earth’s mean temperate to some poorly defined value that is somewhere between 14.0°C and the current value..14.82°C. Let’s go ahead and tackle the 3rd one now. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-australia-55541183. Somebody had to. – Candidate to take on this challenge. The atmosphere uses empirical observations of radiative emission from data bases like HITRAN for various gases and aerosols. However, it will not move away from coal quickly. * If, everything else stayed equal (never does) then the atmosphere of a planet with GHG is “warmer” than that of a planet without GHG. Yes, H2O is not the only, but it is by far the most significant. And narrower. Then, anything is possible. Kilimanjaro)”, https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/tssts-4-2-1-africa.html, https://skepticalscience.com//IPCC-2035-prediction-Himalayan-glaciers.html, https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdf. https://youtu.be/acxQbaDkhRc. Is charge trapped as it moves from electron to electron in an electric current? A cornfield offers over 200 years of CO2 variation in a single day. You would need specify just what band of UV and IR you are considering to know which is more overall energy (and then specify if you mean energy coming in at the top, or energy arriving at the ground). Yep. 46.25 | -73.75: 203 CO2isLife said: H20 determines the temperature of the air, not CO2. In climate “science” nonsense, it is believed that adding energy to a system ALWAYS increases the system temperature. That is pretty much what one would expect because of the trivial change in W/M^2 is easily negated by natural factors such as a cloud or weather front. Maybe next time, instead of just reading the overview, you might consider digging into the details before being caught out making making false claims. With or Without CO2, H2O will absorb 100% of outgoing LWIR of 15µ. Anyone that rejects reality is not a scientist, bdgwx. You will see there is no warming due to CO2. Plus, it will show that once a trend begins, you can’t just extrapolate that out till the Apocalypse. Simply look up Henry’s law or put a Coke Can on a burner. That is something you made up, it has not support in reality and actual experimental evidence proves it is wrong and made up. If there are things that you don’t understand then ask questions. This allows the sun to warm the surface faster the next day. A CO2 laser depends on coherent light. – Globe: 0.07 C / decade https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v4.cgi?id=ASN00015540&ds=14&dt=1, Alice Springs Airport (23.7951S, 133.8890E) ID:ASN00015590 Yes, the climate models do have more than 1 factor. Cornfields will have a lower CO2 ppm than the normal atmosphere. Where did I say 231.7K is the right temperature? The loss of ‘cloud forests’, e.g., through fire, since 1976 has resulted in a 25% annual reduction of water sources derived from fog (equivalent to the annual drinking water supply of 1 million people living around Mt. Me too, I’m over 70. CO2 won’t. CO2isLife said: Ive heard multiple times that CO2 is the only forcing factor that has changed over time. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans#:~:text=However%2C%20the%20science%20on%20the,(IPCC)%20fifth%20assessment%20report. May I recommend taking a look at the models the scientific community are working on? Or maybe I am. Please explain. I’m freezing my arse off in Alaska. Yep. 720p. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-really-turned-sahara-desert-green-oasis-wasteland-180962668/. Instead, they ignore H20 and focus on CO2. Hansen was also an activist. The effect is prominent in the NH cold months as the temperature of the Arctic goes above freezing during the summer. Global Warming if they aren't pointing the finger at Man? It’s possible CO2 is the driver b/c as Dr Spencer states temperature is still rising in the UAH Lower Atmosphere at +.14*C per decade. This one. Anyway, you can calculate out the differences in the W/M^2 between the deserts and rain forests, and the fall in temperatures, to identify the contribution of CO2 to the GHG effect. All one has to do is open a web browser and go look at the various space based radiometer products that are widely disseminated to see that GHGs lower the amount of radiation escaping to space. He was skeptical, however, of the quality of the evidence for the effect, and was concerned about the urban heat island effect and whether it was properly dealt with by the existing temperature records. Until you end El Ninos, we will never have CAGW. That may be a better solution than a centered 13 month value. What is interesting is why they don’t correlate: https://mrooijer.shinyapps.io/graphic/, “1) The oceans are warming, 15µ LWIR won’t warm the oceans Though some mention of using just over 700 C and 240 bars of pressure. You start in Jan of that year from 98 and superimpose the 2016 data. You dont seem to understand that photons may not interact with matter they encounter. When the wind started the cables vibrating, like a huge guitar, the vibrations were transferred to the deck and back to the cables. “Yes it does. If that is the case, and using your above example, wouldn’t adding -80C&Deg; to a 18C&Deg; Atmosphere actually work to cool the atmosphere? As I’ve stated many times trends are useless in noisy data. The upper limit doesn’t make it into the charts and graphs, and the paper suggests that doubling could actually occur some time between 2160 and 2480. Why did an increase in CO2 not cause warming. Some feedbacks amplify the effect of forcing, some reduce – outgoing longwave radiation Lets drill down so you cant miss it. He takes a little few stations out of GHCN V3, and says: look, desert, no warming. forecasting ENSO is not accurate. https://phys.org/news/2021-01-beijing-temperature-decade-lows.html, thanks Bindidon Both would be enclosed, both would be sheltered from incoming radiation, both would have identical atmospheric temperatures around and above the corn. If in atmosphere and want to insulate it, one would concerned heat loss to atmosphere, so could wrap in house fiberglass insulation. Because these trees were not ‘sacred’ ? I would be happier if global warming continues, but then I live in relatively cold Michigan, while people living in southern Florida, which feels like a steam room on many summer days, may not agree. Unfortunately, the recovery from that extreme high extent of the 1970s, similar to extents of the LIA, has stalled for the last dozen or so years. I think the proper term is brainwashed. Appeals to the authority of the nameless crowd are not convincing. The two of you have shown that desert stations have risen by an average of 0.9C over the last century while the overall land warming grew by 1.5C. 10 molecules — 5 photons to space. I am thinking this decade could be the turning point in the global temperature trend and it could happen in a flash. Further to my previous post, I am not sure if the figures have been updated or I misread them, but they look OK now. You are demonstrating a change in the view variable which does nothing whatsoever to establish the one-way glass theory that is fundamental global warming. = Worse than we expected (11 years left), 2021 There would be nothing to stop the emitter emitting at a maximum rate. That is inconsistent with the physics of the CO2 molecule and its interaction with 15µ LWIR. Now close the lower tap slightly. Current CCS technology at best is only 40 MILLION tons a year. ” and warns “. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v4.cgi?id=ASN00015590&ds=14&dt=1. Not a large percentage of the Earth surface at that temperature throughout the year. It is the amount of energy given off or received by an object. My memory is pretty good. puzzled? Global warming is natural, so is cooling. Answer that very very simple question. I doubt your body qualifies over 25 years. Are they deliberately trying to destroy their scientific credentials? For example, it is stated, probably correctly, that light travels around 90 km/s slower in air than a vacuum. Do you really wish that? Complex problems as CO2? Looks like most of the heat from the 2018-20 El Nino has finally radiated away. What is the lag time or delay? Every reported climate disaster prediction that has reached its use-by date is a failure. Create a false narrative and attack that narrative. 4) Dry Ice (Ironically temperature -78C) You then say that if we return to the global temperatures of several decades ago, then there will have been no warming over that period of time. It would be a bloodbath and the credibility of NASA would be destroyed. At a temperature of 400 C, does the peak frequency change? 2017: 10.39 Nothing in the atmosphere that can trap molecules? The two graphs do not show how strong or weak CO2 is; they rather show how they respectively behave at the two altitudes. For October, NASA had the ONI at -1.1, BOM at -0.9 and the Met Office at -0.8. With enough ice cubes (ie completely surrounding the thermometer with ice) then the thermometer would indeed receive 300 W/m^2. Yes the warmer would be better , but the world right now is in the state of CO2 warming psychosis which needs to be broken. That idea of heat transfer via radiation of heat as a substance that could flow through air persisted with Clausius, Maxwell, Stefan, Boltzmann, and Planck. Do you really think anybody of sound mind agrees with you? “By my calcs this energy is substantially higher ( 40-50 times) than 15 micrometre IR ?”. Vegetation has a huge impact on water vapor in the atmosphere. The earth appears to be pretty close to a self healing entity over millennia if not millions of years. Their current prediction is for it to end quickly. Bindidon, thousands of nonsense papers can’t alter reality. There are no lasers in the sky. You seem to imply that I am wrong. Al Gore? Also, Bindidon, please post a spreadsheet on the station locations that you used for your graphs and their BI if possible. Compare the slope coefficient on the regression of the two samples. Bdgwx, I agree as long as you define long term correctly. The tide gauges do not indicate acceleration.”. According to the latest data from Dr. Spencer, it looks like the Arctic is the warmest place on earth! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komabayashi-Ingersoll_limit. Even if I wouldn’t know exactly who of us is correct wrt these two graphs, there is another reason to clearly say you are right: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AOMJ5lkgkNLXlrH77zJq_OnJmI7gi5vo/view. I specifically used “kinetic energy”, to avoid anyone confusing the issue. https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2020/02/screen-shot-2020-02-23-at-8.16.14-am.png. 2) I then apply 9.5µ LWIR The glacier isn’t melting, it is 3,000 ft above the freeze line. Apparently, you are a hockey stick believer. https://i.ibb.co/Bzv6gCk/Screenshot-1.png. Predictions for the first "ice-free" summer were around 2100 in the 1990's. And, it’s your responsibility to “prove” your claim, not mine. Not once have they led in a prediction of the La Nina that was coming though NASA did. Interestingly both years started with a January of 1.17 C anomaly. Apply 9.5µ to the gas, and it should warm to 18C°. The big question is will it revert all the way back to the pre-2014 levels? tout ceci est dans la logique de notre histoire climatique, la remonte depuis 170 ans des tempratures moyennes ne pouvaut mannquer de se traduire par une modification des rythmes glaciaires saisonniers, tant dans les banquises que dans les glaciers et calottes permanentes.
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